AXNT20 KNHC 201043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N21W 2N30W ALONG THE EQUATOR WEST OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR TO JUST INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 18W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC TO OVER E GULF. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF HAZE AND FOG ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. OTHERWISE THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE NW GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER S HAITI NEAR 19N72W CONTINUING S TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC. THUS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 28N76W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING BERMUDA SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N70W MOVING DRIFTING E. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N56W ALONG 25N61W TO 21N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER HISPANIOLA DISSIPATING BEFORE IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO BEYOND 32N42W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N36W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE