AXNT20 KNHC 182206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is near the coast of Sierra Leone to 08N13W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 05N22W to 00N45W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is observed south of 02N and W of
35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends westward
into the NE basin, with the associated ridge dominating the Gulf
of Mexico. This pattern supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds
over the SW half of the basin, with the strong winds occurring
off W Yucatan. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the NE basin.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf and 1 to 3 ft in the NE. No
significant convection is present.

For the forecast, high pressure extending westward from the
western Atlantic to the central Gulf of Mexico will be in control
of the wind flow pattern over most of the area through late Sat. A
moist return flow across the northern Gulf is likely to lead to
patchy areas of fog at night through Sat. Fresh to strong winds
northeast to east winds will continue pulsing off the NW Yucatan
peninsula and south-central Gulf at night through Sat night, then
pulse at mostly fresh speeds through Tue night. Looking ahead, a
cold front is forecast to move into the far NW Gulf Sun morning,
reach from northern Florida to near 27N90W and to northeast Mexico
Sun evening, then stall from west-central Florida to 26N90W and
to northeast Mexico early on Mon. The front is expected to
gradually become diffuse into Tue night. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds will follow the front, except briefly reaching
strong speeds over the waters east of southern Texas Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to force
fresh to locally strong trade winds in the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Fresh to
locally strong trades have also developed this afternoon offshore
Colombia. Mainly moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate
the remainder of the basin. No significant convection is occurring
at this time.

For the forecast, broad high pressure located between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong trade winds in
the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage at night during the next few
days. These winds will gradually diminish this weekend into early
next week as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic and
the pressure gradient relaxes. High pressure that will build in
behind the front is expected to support fresh to locally strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean starting Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is reflected at the surface from near 30N51W
to 23N57W to 19N62W. This trough is producing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 23N to 30N between 45W and 56W.
Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are present in the vicinity of this
convection, with locally higher winds and seas possible in the
stronger thunderstorms.

High pressure of 1020 mb is centered across the NW waters near
30N72W. The pressure gradient between the high and the low
pressure trough is leading to moderate to fresh winds and seas of
5-7 ft S of 27N and between the Bahamas and the surface trough.
Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent.

To the east of the surface trough, the central and eastern
Atlantic are under the influence of a 1019 mb high pressure
system positioned near 27N38W. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to
locally fresh NE to E trade winds south of 20N and E of 55W. Wave
heights are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Satellite imagery suggests
than Saharan air dominates this area S of 20N between Africa and
45W. Slight to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough of low pressure will move
northeast of the forecast waters tonight. The remainder of the SW
N Atlantic is under the influence of high pressure that supports
moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 27N. Winds will diminish
and seas will subside over these waters as the trough continues
to pull away allowing for the pressure gradient to relax. Looking
ahead, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop over the
Florida offshore waters N of the NW Bahamas starting Sun afternoon
ahead of a cold front forecast to move off NE Florida Sun night.
These winds will reach strong speeds Sun night and diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds Mon. On Tue and Tue night, weak high
pressure will settle in over the western half of the area
providing for light to gentle winds over most of the area, except
east of 65W where winds will be gentle to moderate.

$$
Konarik