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AXNT20 KNHC 120507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Feb 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a 1027
mb high pressure system near Bermuda and lower pressures in
northern Colombia result in pulsing winds to gale force each
night and early morning offshore of Colombia. This is expected to
continue through early Fri morning. Rough to very rough seas are
forecast with these winds, peaking near 14 ft during the highest
winds. Winds and seas will diminish somewhat during the weekend.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to
03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 00N37W and to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04N and between
20W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends from southern Louisiana to the
central Texas coast. A few showers are noted with this boundary.
Elsewhere, a ridge over the western Atlantic continues to
influence the weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico
and southern Texas support moderate to fresh southerly winds over
much of the basin. These winds are sustaining seas of 3-6 ft.
However, lighter winds and slight seas are noted in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf Wed night, then
stall from the Bay of Campeche to near the Florida Big Bend on Fri
before dissipating. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the
front in the central Gulf through Wed afternoon. Strong to near
gale force winds are expected behind the front. Looking ahead,
the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sun and
move SE across the full basin by Mon evening. Strong N winds will
also follow this front in the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please,
read the Special Feature Section for more details.

Pockets of low-level moisture continue to move across the
Caribbean Sea in the trade wind flow, supporting light, isolated
showers. The basin remains under the dominion of a broad
subtropical ridge positioned over the central and western
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the
Colombian low forces pulsing easterly winds to gale force near the
coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong winds across the remainder
of the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the highest seas
occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are noted in the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge
across the western Atlantic along 28N and low pressure over
northwestern Colombia will support strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean pulsing to gale force each night and early
morning near the coast of NW Colombia through early Fri morning.
Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the
highest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are
expected across the remainder of southwestern and central
Caribbean into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds
through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of
Hispaniola. Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W early Thu
through Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds and
rough seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North
Atlantic waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin
to shift eastward Mon and Tue, leading to decreasing winds and
seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front enters the SW North Atlantic near
31N59W and continues to 30N73W. No deep convection is noted near
this boundary. The basin is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge that covers most of the tropical Atlantic. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally
strong easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 55W, with the
highest winds occurring off NW Hispaniola. Seas in the area
described are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas are noted west of 75W and north of 25N.

The subtropical ridge is also forcing fresh to strong NE-E trade
winds south of 23N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Wave heights in these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range. The
strongest winds and highest seas are found west of 50W and south
of 20N. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds
will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic
ridge persists along 28N-29N. Associated easterly swell will also
lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail N of 25N until Thu night, when a cold
front will move into the NW waters, south of 30N and to the W of
70W, bringing fresh to strong NE winds behind it. The front is
expected to move eastward into the weekend, and stall E to W along
26N on Sat. The next front will exit the SE U.S. Sun night and
reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas Mon afternoon.

$$
Delgado